Users of population projections and estimates in PDH.stat on the Pacific Data Hub are notified of an important change in the source for these data from 10 April 2025.
Pacific Island population projections and estimates in PDH.stat, the indicator database of the Pacific Data Hub, will change from those calculated by the Pacific Community (SPC)’s Statistics for Development Division to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, effective 10 April 2025.
SPC’s population projections were last prepared in 2020 and because many Pacific Island countries and territories have held a population census since, they are now out-of-date. The Statistics for Development Division is changing to the United Nations’ projections as a more accurate estimate of Pacific populations than the previously available data through PDH.stat.
Although all updates to PDH.stat are routinely notified, special attention is drawn to this change which may see significant movements in population data for some countries and territories.
Key differences between our previously published populations and the UN World Population Prospects 2024 are—
- Pacific population growth out to 2050 is projected to remain positive, but some countries face depopulation
- Below-replacement fertility is beginning to manifest in some Pacific Island countries and territories as their age structure is fundamentally changing
- Life expectancy continues to rise across the region.
The Statistics for Development Division is assessing the population revisions’ impact on derived statistical measures that depend on population, like per-capita GDP or a country’s progress against their development goals, and which metrics may be ‘implicitly’ revised because of the move to the UN World Population Prospects 2024 estimates.
These impacts will be notified to data users through another advisory published at sdd.spc.int/news in due course.
